XRP is showing signs of stress below $1.35 as selling pressure and uncertainty linger — but a quieter, important shift among large holders could change the supply picture under the surface.
CryptoQuant’s whale-tracking data for Binance reveals a marked behavioral change: daily whale inflows to the exchange have fallen to about 12.6 million XRP, and the 30-day cumulative inflow has dropped to roughly 1.44 billion XRP — one of its lowest readings since early 2026. By contrast, the March peak saw the 30-day cumulative flow near 2.6 billion XRP, meaning the primary distribution metric has been cut by nearly half.
Why that matters: whale inflows to exchanges are the market’s main avenue for large-scale selling — sending coins to venues where they can be immediately liquidated. When those inflows collapse to multi-year lows, the pipeline of potential distribution narrows. In plain terms, the heaviest sellers appear to be keeping coins off exchanges, reducing one of the most persistent structural forces that has weighed on XRP’s price. That doesn’t guarantee a rebound, but it removes a key bearish argument.
Technically, XRP’s price story remains troubled. On the weekly chart it’s trading around $1.30 and the market has shifted from expansion to correction after being rejected in the $3.00–$3.50 area. That rejection set a decisive lower high and broke the prior bullish sequence. Since then, XRP lost the 50-week moving average and is now testing the 100-week moving average for support; the 200-week moving average sits near $1.00 as the next major structural level if current support fails.
Price action has been sharp and decisive: the breakdown from above $2.00 occurred with strong downward momentum and only weak, short-lived recoveries. Volume patterns reinforce the picture — selling rallies show higher participation, while recoveries attract declining interest. That asymmetry is typical of distribution phases rather than accumulation.
Key levels to watch
- Immediate support zone: $1.25–$1.30 — a sustained break below here would likely accelerate downside toward the 200-week average near $1.00.
- Near-term upside: reclaiming $1.80 would help stabilize the structure.
- Trend reversal: a convincing move back above $2.20 would be required to argue a true trend shift.
Bottom line: the heaviest sellers have stepped back from exchanges, which reduces a major structural headwind for XRP. However, price action and volume still point to a market in correction, and until demand returns decisively, volatility and downside risk remain elevated.
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