Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has flipped back into positive territory over the past 30 days — a behavioral shift that’s drawing fresh attention as BTC climbs back above $71,000 today.
Why it matters
- Just 29% of long-term holder (LTH) supply is currently underwater, a far lower share than during past cycle troughs. Major bottoms recorded 44%–53% of LTH supply in loss (with readings above 50% in 2015 and roughly 45% and 44% in 2018 and 2022 respectively). That puts today’s 29% figure well below those stress levels, but it’s still rising — meaning there could be room for more weakness before a clear bottom forms.
What the chain data shows
- CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost explains the recent positive shift doesn’t necessarily mean a wave of fresh buying. Instead, more coins are “aging into” long-term status: coins moved about six months ago have simply been left untouched long enough to be counted as LTH supply. That behavioral change — holding dominating selling — is notable because it reflects investor intent as much as price action.
- The relevant 30-day moving average metric had been deeply negative late last year: by the end of November 2025 it fell to roughly 674,000 BTC (on that metric) and has since recovered to about 308,000 BTC. Darkfost notes similar turnarounds in past stretches often preceded price gains, though he cautions it’s too early to call this a sustained trend.
Price context and market caveats
- Bitcoin briefly pushed above $70,000 on April 6 but the breakout did not hold and the market has seen continued pressure since. Traders link that weakness to broader geopolitical stress weighing on risk assets.
- Importantly, a rising LTH supply metric can reflect two different dynamics: active accumulation or simply holders refusing to sell. Darkfost warns the latter can lift the LTH reading without guaranteeing a follow-through in price. Weak demand remains part of the current picture, so investors are watching for confirmation before calling a reversal.
Bottom line
Chain signals show a positive shift in holding behavior that historically can precede gains, but the market still needs clearer signs of demand and price conviction. For now, the data paints an encouraging but tentative picture — one traders will be monitoring closely as Bitcoin navigates the $70k–$71k area.
(Featured image: Unsplash; chart: TradingView)
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