XRP’s pop to $1.39 on April 8 looked like a welcome rebound—but according to analyst CasiTrades, it may have been nothing more than a corrective relief before a deeper decline.
What happened
A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran sparked short liquidations across crypto markets, briefly sending XRP up to $1.39 and shifting sentiment from fear toward cautious optimism. However, CasiTrades, who is tracking XRP’s short-term wave structure on the one-hour chart, says that bounce simply completed a corrective phase and set the stage for the next leg down.
Why this matters (the technical read)
- The rally stalled around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (roughly $1.35–$1.40), which CasiTrades interprets as the end of a clean Wave 2 in an Elliott Wave count.
- With Wave 2 likely finished, the next expected move is Wave 3—typically the strongest and fastest impulse in Elliott Wave sequences.
- XRP has since pulled back to about $1.32, and the analyst projects a multi-wave decline unfolding on the hourly timeframe.
Price path CasiTrades outlines
- Wave 3 target: around $1.09 (aligning with a 0.618 retracement).
- A Wave 4 corrective bounce could lift price back toward $1.20.
- A subsequent Wave 5 continuation could push lower still, with structural targets cited near the 0.786 extension at $1.0854 and a deeper 0.854 extension at $0.862 if the full pattern plays out.
Macro and catalyst context
Bullish upside is not impossible—CasiTrades notes two potential positive catalysts: the CLARITY Act markup (scheduled for the second half of April) and any renewed progress on the Iran ceasefire. But if the CLARITY Act stalls and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, the $1.30 support level could give way, opening the door to the lower targets above.
Bottom line
What looked like a relief rally may have simply been the corrective leg that sets XRP up for a larger downward impulse, according to CasiTrades’ Elliott Wave/Fibonacci read. Traders should watch the $1.30 area and upcoming political and regulatory developments for signs the structure is actually breaking higher or continuing lower.
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