XRP’s pop to $1.39 on April 8 looked like a breath of fresh air for bulls — but according to crypto analyst CasiTrades, it may have been nothing more than a setup for a larger drop.
What happened
- The brief spike followed a Pakistan-brokered ceasefire between the US and Iran, which triggered short-liquidations across crypto markets and pushed sentiment from extreme fear toward cautious optimism.
- XRP reached roughly $1.39 before easing back to about $1.32.
CasiTrades’ take
- CasiTrades, who has been charting XRP’s wave structure, says the rally completed a corrective Wave 2 rather than signaling a trend reversal.
- The bounce stalled near the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone (roughly $1.35–$1.40), which she interprets as confirmation of a clean Wave 2 in an Elliott Wave count.
- With Wave 2 likely finished, she expects the next phase to be a Wave 3 impulse to the downside — typically the fastest and most powerful leg in an Elliott sequence.
Projected path and targets
- Her one-hour chart projection outlines a five-wave impulsive decline:
- Primary Wave 3 target: around $1.09 (near a 0.618 retracement).
- Expected Wave 4 bounce: roughly $1.20.
- Potential Wave 5 continuation: with deeper structural targets at the 0.786 extension (~$1.0854) and the 0.854 extension (~$0.862) if the move fully plays out.
Macro context
- Two bullish catalysts could blunt this bearish scenario: the CLARITY Act markup slated for the second half of April and further progress on the Iran ceasefire.
- Conversely, if the CLARITY Act stalls or the conflict persists, CasiTrades warns that $1.30 support could break, opening the door to deeper losses.
Bottom line
- What looked like a short-lived rally may instead have been the chart’s way of completing a corrective phase. Traders should watch the 0.618 Fibonacci zone, the $1.30 support, and upcoming macro headlines — any of which could confirm whether the anticipated Wave 3 downside is next.
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