Wintermute’s head of policy, Ron Hammond, puts the Clarity Act’s chances of passing this year at roughly 30% — a cautious take that reflects both mounting momentum in Washington and persistent roadblocks.
“The legislative process is advancing, but unevenly. There are a lot of moving parts,” Hammond said, noting timelines that have shifted repeatedly. Lawmakers have signaled intent to push the bill through committee, with some aiming for a vote as early as April 20, though he warned those dates remain fluid. Hammond will expand on the outlook at CoinDesk’s Consensus Miami next month.
What the Clarity Act would do
The bill seeks to create a comprehensive market-structure framework for U.S. crypto markets — including clearer rules on which digital assets are securities or commodities and how the SEC and CFTC share oversight. Backers say that clarity is the missing ingredient for broader institutional adoption: a single market-structure law could reduce legal and compliance uncertainty for asset managers, banks and pension funds, allowing them to scale exposure, launch products and integrate crypto into traditional finance.
Market signals back a cautious probability
Hammond’s 30% estimate aligns with other gauges of skepticism: a Punchbowl survey of lobbyists and staffers put the odds at 26%, while prediction market Kalshi has hovered just above even. The spread highlights how unsettled the bill’s trajectory remains even as negotiations continue.
Banks and stablecoin yield: the central sticking point
Traditional financial institutions, Hammond says, are the biggest roadblock — especially over whether stablecoins should be allowed to pay yield. Negotiations have seen multiple attempts to find compromise: a proposed “yield deal” surfaced about two weeks ago but failed to satisfy either side, Hammond said, and fresh language is circulating. A report from the Council of Economic Advisers pushed back on bank objections, yet banks “refuse to give way,” he added, making meaningful progress difficult.
Politics complicate the calculus
Beyond banks, political dynamics could further complicate the bill. Democrats who have accepted crypto industry donations are navigating a tricky balance, Hammond noted: “If you’re a Democrat who took crypto money, where do you stand on this issue?” Lawmakers also remain concerned about decentralized finance (DeFi) and anti-money-laundering compliance. And Hammond warned that renewed scrutiny of former President Donald Trump’s crypto-related dealings could become “another headache” for Democratic support if that issue intensifies around June.
A narrow path forward
Despite the friction, Hammond believes the Clarity Act still has a viable, if narrow, path: continued committee progress and fresh negotiating breakthroughs could keep the bill alive into midyear when political incentives may shift. “There will be some progress soon,” he said — but stressed that passage in 2026 would require concessions that have so far proved elusive.
Why Wintermute is watching closely
For Wintermute, the stakes are tangible. The market maker — which Hammond described as one of the largest globally with roughly $10 million in daily trading volume — is expanding its U.S. presence, building out a New York team and actively hiring. The firm’s growth underscores a broader industry commitment to the U.S. market and the hope that clearer rules would unlock institutional flows.
Bottom line: momentum exists, but significant hurdles remain. Hammond’s 30% figure is a reminder that progress in Washington does not guarantee results — at least not yet.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
