Bitcoin may be showing signs of seller exhaustion after more than two months of choppy recovery from its early-February lows.
Price action and context
After dipping toward $60,000 on Feb. 5, BTC has largely been consolidating and grinding higher toward the $70,000 zone amid ongoing macro uncertainty — including the Middle East conflict that has pushed oil above $100 a barrel. That backdrop kept caution high, but on-chain metrics suggest selling pressure is starting to ease.
What the on-chain data says
Analytics from CheckonChain show realized losses — the dollar value of coins moved at a loss — have fallen to roughly $400 million per day. While still elevated versus prior years, realized losses have trended lower in recent weeks after spiking to about $2 billion on Nov. 21 and again on Feb. 5, levels that outpaced those seen during the 2022 bear market.
“Spot markets are shifting from aggressive selling to net buy side pressure, realized profits and losses are both declining,” CheckonChain said.
Glassnode’s readings back this up. Its seven-day moving average puts realized profits at about $300 million per day, near twelve-month lows — a sign that many holders who bought around $60,000 are only marginally profitable and are starting to take modest gains. Glassnode also reports the realized profit-to-loss ratio has climbed to 1.4, its highest since January, meaning coins moved at a profit now outweigh those moved at a loss.
Why it matters
Declining realized losses, shrinking realized profits and a rising profit-to-loss ratio together point toward fading liquidation-driven selling. In plain terms: fewer investors are capitulating at a loss, and more moves on-chain are net profitable. That combination raises the odds that the market is approaching a phase of seller exhaustion, which historically can set the stage for steadier price advances — though macro risks remain.
Bottom line
On-chain signals from multiple providers indicate selling pressure has eased, and realized-loss episodes that shook the market late last year and in early February are subsiding. Traders and investors should watch whether these trends continue and how macro developments, such as geopolitical tensions and commodity price swings, influence momentum.
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