Bitcoin surged into the weekend after US inflation data came in weaker than expected — and a fresh analysis suggests the domestic market, particularly institutional flows, may be a major driver behind the move.
Analyst Burak Kesmeci posted on X that the Coinbase Premium Index has been a reliable on-chain indicator for Bitcoin’s price action over the past two years. The metric measures the price gap between BTC on Coinbase (USD pair) and Binance (USDT pair). When the index is positive, it implies US buyers — often institutions and large investors — are paying a premium versus global buyers. When it’s negative, US demand is comparatively softer.
Kesmeci argues that this index has tracked Bitcoin’s major trends closely. “During periods when the index stayed positive, Bitcoin rose from $41K to $126K, while in periods when it turned negative, it declined from $126K down to the $60K range,” he wrote, highlighting a striking historical correlation between US investor demand and BTC price swings.
That pattern appears to have reasserted itself this week: as the Coinbase Premium eased its negative pressure and flipped positive over the past few days, Bitcoin pushed higher — topping $73,000 in the latest leg of the rally. Kesmeci’s hourly data showed the index “quite green,” and he concluded that the “locomotive carrying Bitcoin from 66K to 73K is the positive sentiment of US investors (especially whales).”
Price snapshot: BTC is trading around $73,330 at the time of writing, up just over 1% in the past 24 hours.
Takeaway: The Coinbase Premium Index is emerging as a useful lens for gauging US-driven demand in crypto markets. While correlation doesn’t guarantee causation and broader macro events (like inflation prints) still matter, monitoring the premium could help traders and observers anticipate where institutional flows might push Bitcoin next.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
