XRP has joined a broader crypto rebound this week as geopolitical tensions show signs of easing. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a tentative thaw in the Iran–US standoff have lifted risk appetite, helping XRP briefly test $1.51 on Friday — its highest level in nearly a month. But according to market analyst Sam Daodu, the rally’s next leg depends heavily on a tight cluster of events over the coming fortnight.
Three dates that could make or break XRP
Daodu’s latest report highlights three near-term deadlines that could determine whether XRP’s recovery sustains or reverses:
- April 22 — Iran ceasefire expiry: The current ceasefire is due to lapse on this date. Daodu warns that a resumption of hostilities would likely send the entire crypto market lower and pull XRP down with it.
- Late April — CLARITY Act markup in the Senate Banking Committee: This US regulatory milestone may be the most important driver for XRP’s medium-term outlook. If the markup is delayed beyond May, Daodu argues the bill could be effectively shelved until 2027, removing a key catalyst for XRP in 2026.
- April 28–29 — FOMC meeting: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%. Daodu says the Fed alone may not move XRP much, but a hawkish surprise combined with disappointing geopolitical and regulatory outcomes could intensify selling pressure.
How those events play together matters more than any single outcome, he adds — a negative convergence across geopolitics, regulation and monetary policy would be especially damaging.
Three price scenarios for the next two weeks
Daodu lays out three potential trajectories for XRP based on combinations of the ceasefire, CLARITY Act timing, and overall market health:
- Bull case ($1.50–$1.90): The Senate schedules the CLARITY Act markup before the end of April and the Iran ceasefire is extended beyond April 22. XRP could push toward the 200-day moving average near $1.90 by May, but that would likely require sustained ETF inflows and continued Bitcoin strength.
- Base case ($1.35–$1.50): The ceasefire is extended, but the CLARITY Act markup slips into May. This produces a more muted rally range.
- Bear case ($1.15–$1.30): Hostilities resume after April 22 and oil spikes above $100, pressuring risk assets. If Bitcoin also breaks down below $70,000 in that environment, XRP could revisit support near $1.15.
Market snapshot
At the time of writing XRP was trading around $1.49, up roughly 10% over seven days and 13% over 14 days — gains that reflect the market’s relief over easing geopolitical risk but remain exposed to the three upcoming catalysts Daodu highlights.
Bottom line
XRP’s short-term gains are real, but the next two weeks could be pivotal. Investors will be watching the Iran ceasefire timeline, the CLARITY Act’s Senate schedule, and the Fed meeting — and the interplay among those events may decide whether XRP’s rally gathers momentum or quickly unwinds.
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