Ethereum is clinging to the $2,300 area as the market works through fresh volatility — but a notable shift in derivatives flows may be changing the game.
For much of this cycle, Ethereum’s derivatives market was unusually bearish. Net taker volume — a gauge of who is aggressively hitting the market, buyers or sellers — stayed almost continuously negative. That sell-side dominance peaked in late 2024: in December, when ETH pushed toward $4,000, net taker volume plunged to -$511 million. It got worse at the cycle high just below $5,000, where sellers overwhelmed the tape to the tune of -$568 million. Rather than buyers chasing breakouts, sellers stepped up and capped rallies, making every advance feel contested and fragile.
Now, top analyst Darkfost says that pattern has flipped. Since March, buy-side activity has increasingly absorbed the supply that previously capped moves higher. Net taker volume has quietly swung positive, reaching about +$102 million at the time of reporting — the first sustained buying pressure of this magnitude in the current cycle. That level of conviction last appeared in 2022, when ETH traded near $1,000 during the depths of the prior bear market — a turning point that preceded a meaningful recovery. If this reversal holds, it could alter the structural backdrop for Ethereum’s price action.
Price behavior supports the narrative but stops short of confirming a full regime change. ETH rebounded from a sharp February capitulation that briefly took price below $1,800 and has formed a series of higher lows since early March. Yet the 200-day moving average — sloping down and sitting just above current levels — remains a key technical barrier. Attempts into the $2,350–$2,400 zone have been met with selling, underscoring that resistance is still being defended.
Volume patterns add important context. February’s capitulation came with a clear volume spike, consistent with forced selling and potential exhaustion. Since then, trading volumes have normalized during the rebound, which suggests the recovery has been steadier and less driven by momentum-chasing flows.
Bottom line: momentum is improving and derivatives flows are finally leaning bullish for the first time in this cycle — a material shift after months of sell-side dominance. But the picture is not yet definitive. A clean break and sustained hold above the 200-day moving average would be the clearest signal of a transition from recovery to trend reversal. Until then, expect a developing range with resistance overhead and cautious buyers stepping in on dips.
Featured image: generated by ChatGPT; chart: TradingView.com.
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