XRP is testing the top of its recent trading range but hasn’t yet cleared the next hurdle. The token is stuck near the $1.30–$1.40 consolidation band — currently around $1.43 — with buyers failing to force a sustained breakout. Still, one important technical signal just turned positive: XRP’s daily MACD has flipped bullish for the first time since January, hinting at improving momentum and the possibility of a renewed leg higher.
Why traders are watching
Market analyst Sam Daodu says the durability of this bullish turn will come down to events over the next ten days. He highlights two near-term “trigger points” that could determine whether the MACD flip becomes a genuine breakout or a short-lived blip.
A signal with precedent
Daodu emphasizes that the MACD remained below its signal line for most of 2026 and previous attempts to flip bullish failed — until now. Crucially, when XRP’s MACD has previously held a bullish flip, it preceded major moves. In early January, a similar MACD flip preceded roughly a 25% rally in a single week, sending XRP to about $2.40 on January 7 — the strongest short-term rally of the year at that time. That historical pattern is why traders are keyed into today’s signal.
The catalysts to watch
According to Daodu, two developments would materially increase the odds of a sustained breakout:
- Regulatory clarity: The CLARITY Act markup needs to happen before May to give institutions confidence. Many large players wait for clearer regulatory visibility before allocating capital.
- Geopolitics: He expects the current ceasefire in the conflict to be extended beyond April 22. A political de-escalation would remove a major macro risk factor and support risk assets.
The upside scenario
If both catalysts arrive, Daodu projects significant institutional demand — as much as $4–$8 billion flowing into XRP exchange-traded products. From a technical-confirmation perspective, he says a daily close above $1.55 would validate the MACD flip and increase the odds the breakout is real. With that confirmation, upside targets point toward roughly $1.80 — about a 25% gain from today’s price.
The downside risks
The clearest path to a failed breakout is a reversal of those catalysts. If the ceasefire lapses on April 22 and hostilities resume, Daodu expects oil prices to spike back above $100, which would pressure risk assets and could send the MACD back to bearish. Likewise, if the CLARITY Act stalls past May, XRP could relinquish its recent gains and slide toward $1.30 or lower.
Bottom line
XRP’s daily MACD flip is a bullish development with precedent for sizable moves, but its follow-through hinges on regulatory and geopolitical developments in the near term. A daily close above $1.55 would be the technical confirmation traders are watching; absent that or if key catalysts fail, momentum could quickly roll over.
Featured image: OpenArt. Chart: TradingView.com.
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