The CLARITY Act’s path to becoming U.S. law is narrowing — and the clock is ticking.
In a blunt research note published April 22, Galaxy Digital called the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 “in endgame stage” but put its chances of being signed into law this year at roughly 50-50. The bill, which passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025, has spent months in Senate negotiations and now faces a compressed and uncertain schedule in Washington.
Why the uncertainty
Galaxy’s central point: it’s not one dealbreaker but a stack of unresolved issues that must be settled in sequence, under severe time pressure. The immediate bottleneck is the Senate Banking Committee, which had been expected to mark up the bill in late April. That timeline slipped after Senator Thom Tillis — a key negotiator on stablecoin reward language — called for delaying the markup until May, leaving only a narrow window for the rest of the legislative process.
How tight the window is
Galaxy says a markup in early or mid‑May would still leave a plausible path to enactment in 2026, but with little margin for error. If the markup slips past mid‑May, the chance of passage this year “drops sharply.” After committee markup, the bill must still clear a 60‑vote threshold on the Senate floor, be reconciled with a version from the Agriculture Committee, then reconciled again with the House’s bill, and finally reach the president’s desk. Each step takes time — time the Senate may lack given looming priorities like Iran military authorization debates, a DHS funding standoff, and a backlog of nominations.
The headline sticking point: stablecoin rewards
The best‑known dispute centers on language governing rewards tied to stablecoins — whether exchanges and banks can offer incentives for holding or using stablecoins. A compromise under negotiation by Tillis and Senator Angela Alsobrooks reportedly would ban rewards paid “solely for holding” a stablecoin while allowing narrowly tailored, activity‑based incentives for payments, transfers or platform usage. But until the revised text is released, the committee’s formal notice clock cannot start, and the markup cannot proceed.
Other unresolved policy fights
Galaxy stressed stablecoin yields are only part of the problem. Other unresolved negotiation points include:
- Protections for noncustodial software developers under the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
- Ethics provisions affecting government officials’ crypto holdings.
- Concerns about Section 505 and its potential impact on SEC exemptive relief for tokenization.
- The political and practical effects of current SEC commissioner vacancies.
Taken together, these open questions create a fragile and deadline‑sensitive timeline — none are necessarily fatal on their own, but they add up.
Political signals and timing
Senator Bernie Moreno expressed a similar deadline pressure, saying he expects the legislation “to get done by the end of May,” while warning that missing that window could push crypto market‑structure bills off the table for the foreseeable future.
Galaxy also framed the stakes beyond 2026: a midterm shift in control of either chamber could change committee chairs and priorities, making the path for crypto legislation far less hospitable.
Why CLARITY matters
Despite the procedural uncertainty, Galaxy described the bill as “a strong bill both on technical terms and as a policy matter.” CLARITY aims to:
- Draw jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC.
- Create clear pathways for tokens to be considered non‑securities once sufficiently decentralized.
- Establish a durable legal framework that institutional capital has long sought, potentially unlocking more mainstream participation in crypto markets.
What to watch next
Galaxy identified the next key signals to monitor:
- Release of Senator Tillis’s revised stablecoin text.
- Chairman Tim Scott’s markup announcement and schedule.
- The size and bipartisan makeup of any committee vote.
- Whether Senate leadership commits floor time before the July 4 recess.
Market snapshot
At press time the total crypto market capitalization stood at about $2.58 trillion.
Bottom line: CLARITY is alive, and widely regarded as substantively strong — but it faces a tightening legislative squeeze. If key texts aren’t released and votes aren’t scheduled soon, the odds of passage in 2026 fall quickly.
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