Headline: Galaxy Digital split on CLARITY Act’s fate — CEO says May passage is “all but done,” research chief pegs odds at 50%
Two senior figures at Galaxy Digital are sending mixed signals about the CLARITY Act’s path through Congress — one bullish, one cautious — underscoring how high the stakes remain for U.S. crypto policy.
What Novogratz is saying
CEO Mike Novogratz told SkyBridge founder Anthony Scaramucci on a podcast released Friday that the CLARITY Act — landmark legislation aimed at bringing regulatory clarity to the U.S. crypto market — will clear Congress in May and reach President Donald Trump’s desk in June. Novogratz framed the bill as a global economic-opening measure: with a crypto wallet, he argued, billions who lack access to U.S. financial products could tap American markets directly. He also highlighted the potential for large corporations — naming SpaceX and Google as examples — to be tokenized and sold to global investors. For Novogratz, passage would signal the U.S. is “open for crypto business again” after a wave of relocations during the Biden administration.
A more cautious internal read
But Galaxy’s head of research, Alex Thorn, published a separate assessment Wednesday that paints a more measured picture. Thorn puts the bill’s chances of passing in 2026 at roughly 50%, warning that the odds will drop sharply if the Senate Banking Committee does not hold a markup by mid-May. The committee had been expected to schedule markup by last Friday but did not, rattling industry players counting on a faster timeline. Thorn now expects the committee to announce a markup hearing this week, likely for the final days of April.
What’s slowing things down
Progress has been hampered in part by a standoff between traditional banks and crypto firms over whether stablecoins should pay yields. Banks argue that stablecoins offering returns could siphon deposits away from conventional lenders, creating market distortions and a competitive disadvantage.
Where things stand
The CLARITY Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support but has since stalled in the Senate. Novogratz acknowledged recent setbacks in the timeline but stressed bipartisan interest remains strong: “It’s wildly important for it to get done for both Democrats and Republicans,” he said.
What to watch next
- Whether the Senate Banking Committee schedules and conducts a markup (Thorn says likely this week)
- Any compromises on stablecoin yield rules between banks and crypto firms
- Final Senate vote timing and the White House / presidential signature timeline
If the markup happens on the new schedule, the market will get a clearer signal about whether Novogratz’s optimism or Thorn’s caution better reflects the bill’s chances.
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