An on-chain analyst says a key U.S. market signal is flipping back in Bitcoin’s favor — and that could help sustain the current rally.
In an April 25 post on X, analyst Darkfost flagged a positive shift in the Hourly Coinbase Premium metric, arguing that U.S. institutional and professional buyers are returning to BTC. The indicator — a volume-weighted, hourly measure of the price gap between Coinbase and Binance — has moved moderately into positive territory after a prolonged spell of weakness, and that rotation matters.
Why it’s important
- The Coinbase-Binance spread is often used to infer who’s buying. Coinbase tends to host large, U.S.-based institutional flows, while Binance is seen as more retail-heavy. When Coinbase trades at a premium versus Binance, it can signal stronger institutional demand.
- Darkfost emphasizes the volume-weighted version of the index, which gives bigger trades more influence and reduces noise from small retail orders.
What this could mean for the market
- Institutional-driven rallies are generally viewed as healthier and more durable than retail-led pumps. If U.S. professional buyers are indeed stepping back in, that could underpin further upside for Bitcoin.
- That said, the index hasn’t yet completed a decisive uptrend, so Darkfost cautions against assuming the move is locked in. He said he’ll be watching the Coinbase Premium for further upside as confirmation — not just BTC’s price action alone.
Market snapshot
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading around $77,525, with CoinGecko showing little net movement on the day.
Bottom line: The Coinbase Premium’s flip into positive territory is a bullish signal worth watching, but traders should look for sustained strength in the index before concluding institutional demand has fully returned.
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