Bitcoin wobbles but claws back toward $77K as on-chain data gets messy
Bitcoin briefly tumbled below the psychological $75,000 mark over the weekend, sparking fresh nerves among traders, but the largest crypto has since staged a partial recovery and is eyeing a push back above $77,000. At the time of writing BTC trades near $76,490, up about 1% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, on-chain metrics showing a sudden rise in long-term holder (LTH) supply have caught attention — but analysts warn the signal is distorted.
Why the LTH data is misleading
Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted a jump in Bitcoin held by long-term holders, with CryptoQuant data showing LTH supply rising from roughly 15.0 million to 15.8 million BTC over a recent two-day window. Ordinarily that kind of move would point to renewed accumulation and stronger conviction among seasoned investors.
However, Darkfost says the shift is largely an artifact of a massive internal wallet shuffle performed by Coinbase between November 22–23, 2025. The exchange moved about 800,000 BTC (worth nearly $70 billion at the time) across its own wallets. That maintenance transfer effectively “destroyed” old UTXOs and created new ones, which skews UTXO-based metrics and age/value cohort calculations.
What the Coinbase shuffle changed
The wallet movements have polluted several commonly followed on-chain measures, including:
- UTXO age and cohort distributions
- LTH vs STH (short-term holder) supply accounting
- STH/LTH cost basis and realized value metrics
- Volume and turnover indicators
Because those 800k BTC have now aged out of the short-term cohort, May 23 marked about six months since the transfer and the shuffled coins have formally migrated into the LTH bucket — mechanically inflating LTH supply without reflecting fresh accumulation by investors.
Implications for traders and analysts
The upshot is that an apparent rise in LTH supply shouldn’t automatically be read as bullish accumulation. Analysts urge caution when interpreting these affected on-chain signals: they may not represent new demand or strengthened long-term conviction.
Price outlook: $80K is the next big test
Darkfost also pointed to the next important resistance level coming from the STH cost basis, located just above $80,000. Short-term holders appear to be cutting losses around their average cost rather than holding for a rebound, which has created selling pressure in that neighborhood. For Bitcoin’s recovery to gain momentum, it will likely need a sustained break above the roughly $80K ceiling.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s price action this weekend was mixed — a dip under $75K followed by a rebound toward $77K — while on-chain LTH metrics have been distorted by Coinbase’s massive internal transfer in November 2025. Traders should treat recent LTH supply increases with care and watch the $80K level: a decisive move above it would be a clearer signal of renewed buying interest.
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