XRP traders are feeling the pain — and on-chain data suggests that pain has pushed the market into what some analysts call an “extreme undervalued” zone.
Sanbase operator Santiment reports that XRP’s 30-day MVRV (market value to realized value) has plunged to roughly -47% — its lowest level since December 2020. The longer-term 365-day MVRV is deeply negative as well, sitting near -36%. Santiment’s chart, which overlays XRP price with both MVRV measures, labels the current area an “opportunity” in contrast to prior high-MVRV periods flagged as sell-risk territory.
What this means: MVRV compares the asset’s market cap to the value at which coins were last moved on-chain, and analysts use it to gauge whether holders are in unrealized profit or loss. A -47% 30-day MVRV implies that the average trader active over the past month is sitting on a steep loss — a level Santiment says historically aligns with intense capitulation events and, often, subsequent rebounds.
Santiment argues that deeply negative short-term MVRV readings usually mean recent buyers have been largely washed out, which reduces marginal selling pressure from those who bought near local highs. The firm notes that XRP’s sharp drawdown followed an aggressive rally in late 2024 and early 2025, when many entrants bought close to peaks before momentum cooled. Repeated selloffs since then have left short-term holders heavily underwater.
Despite the selloff — and the fact XRP has lost more than half its market value since last summer — Santiment highlights persistent long-term narratives supporting the token: ongoing regulatory developments, ETF speculation, and Ripple’s adoption story. Those narratives, the firm suggests, could amplify upside if retail capitulation has indeed run its course.
Santiment is careful to caution that MVRV is not a standalone timing tool. Rather, historically-depressed MVRV levels tend to show up after retail traders have largely given up, creating environments where modest positive news can trigger outsized recoveries. In short: the extreme reading may signal limited further downside versus asymmetric upside potential, but it does not guarantee an immediate reversal.
Takeaway: XRP’s on-chain picture looks stretched on the short-term MVRV metric, which some analysts interpret as an actionable “opportunity” window — albeit one that should be weighed alongside broader market signals and fundamentals.
At press time, XRP was trading around $1.33.
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