Bitwise looks beyond Bitcoin’s recent pullback and toward a bigger macro risk: nearly $30 trillion of global debt coming up for refinancing in 2026 — a stress test that could reshape markets and, in Bitwise’s view, eventually help Bitcoin.
Why the debt wave matters
- Bitwise warns that rising Japanese government bond yields and an IMF alert about weakening demand for sovereign debt could squeeze markets. If central banks respond with fresh liquidity, Bitcoin — an asset outside government balance sheets and without a central issuer — could attract renewed interest as an alternative store of value.
Real rates and the backdrop for Bitcoin
- The firm highlights a persistent relationship between Bitcoin and real interest rates: Bitcoin has historically performed better when real yields fall. Bitwise says a mix of sticky inflation and a Fed pause could set the stage for lower real yields, supporting price appreciation.
What happened in May
- Bitcoin’s May rally was volatile. After a short squeeze, stronger on-chain signals and about $166.5 million of net inflows into Bitcoin ETPs helped push the price above $80,000 — briefly to roughly $83,000. Long-term holders also added roughly 125,000 BTC that month, lending the move support.
- That momentum faded quickly. Global Bitcoin ETPs recorded more than $1 billion in net outflows, sentiment cooled, and Bitcoin failed to break decisively through the $80k–$85k band. The asset slipped back toward the $70k area, finishing the latest leg down around $72k before more recent weakness.
Supply dynamics tightening
- Even as demand softened, supply is becoming tighter. Long-term holders now control a record 14.85 million BTC — about 73% of circulating supply. Bitwise notes increasing inactivity on the chain:
- 60% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in more than a year
- 48.5% hasn’t moved in more than two years
- 42.8% hasn’t moved in more than three years
- 33% hasn’t moved in at least five years
- That accumulation squeezes available supply while new buying has been slower to return.
Valuation context and technicals
- Bitwise argues Bitcoin still looks inexpensive relative to major U.S. tech stocks: Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio sits below its long-run average, while the Nasdaq 100’s price-to-book is near record highs.
- Key levels to watch, per Bitwise:
- $78,000–$80,000: critical watch area
- $83,000–$85,000: first major resistance / market’s “dividing line”
- $73,000: important support
- $95,000: next upside target
Market snapshot
- At the time of Bitwise’s note, Bitcoin traded around $69,460, down about 4.7% over the prior 24 hours (Coingecko).
Bitwise published these observations in its latest Bitcoin Macro Investor report and summarized them on Twitter on June 1, 2026, arguing that the combination of sovereign debt stress, central bank reactions, and constrained supply could be a structural tailwind for Bitcoin over a longer horizon.
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