XRP slipped about 5% amid a Fed-driven risk-off wave, but technical signals and on-chain liquidity could still give bulls a lifeline.
What happened
- XRP fell to an intraday low of $1.16 on June 18 after failing to clear the $1.25 resistance zone. Heavy spot selling below the recently reclaimed $1.20 level accelerated the move, triggering stop-losses and leveraged liquidations.
- The pullback coincided with a broader crypto retreat after the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50%–3.75% while signalling the possibility of further tightening risks in 2026.
Technical picture — cautious but not bearish
- Short-term: On the 4-hour chart XRP is trading inside a descending channel formed since its early-June run toward $1.29. Price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1.165 while still sitting above an ascending trendline that has supported the market since early June.
- Momentum has cooled but hasn’t turned deeply bearish: the RSI is around 43 and the MACD histogram is below zero after a bearish crossover.
- Key levels to watch:
- Support: $1.16–$1.18 (critical). A decisive break below $1.16 could expose the June swing low near $1.12.
- Near-term resistance: $1.20, then $1.23, $1.26, and $1.29.
- Daily view: XRP remains under the Supertrend resistance near $1.26, but the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up ~78% vs Aroon Down ~14%, implying the longer-term trend hasn’t fully swung to bearish.
Bullish read — divergence, accumulation and liquidity traps
- Analyst Gerla flagged a bullish divergence on the 3-day chart: momentum is turning higher even as price prints lower lows inside a falling wedge — a setup that can precede a breakout if buyers reassert control.
- Trader Nebraskangooner suggested a possible accumulation structure on the daily chart, noting confirmation would likely require a break above $1.34 — a level to watch for a larger trend reversal.
- Derivatives data supports upside risk: CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps show a large cluster of leveraged positions around $1.30, with additional pockets toward $1.34. If buyers can push price higher, those zones could act as magnets and fuel a short squeeze.
Fundamentals — Ripple keeps growing
- Ripple continues expanding its payments footprint. This week it took an equity stake in African fintech Flutterwave in a deal valuing the company at $3.3 billion. The transaction doesn’t create an immediate commercial partnership but gives Ripple exposure to a major African payments network.
- Ripple also said it expects to reach a $1 billion revenue run rate (excluding XRP held on its balance sheet) by the end of 2026, a bullish operating milestone for investors watching fundamentals beyond token price.
Risks
- Macro factors remain dominant: elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and the Fed’s higher-for-longer messaging are suppressing risk appetite across speculative assets. Worsening global sentiment would likely pressure XRP alongside the broader market.
Bottom line
- Short-term bulls need the $1.16–$1.18 demand zone to hold to preserve the current recovery structure. A break below would raise the odds of a deeper drop toward $1.12. Conversely, a rebound above $1.20 could bring the large liquidation clusters near $1.30–$1.34 into play and revive momentum toward recent highs.
Disclosure: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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