Bitcoin hovered near $68,780 on Tuesday as U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted their biggest daily inflow in more than a month.
According to SoSoValue, funds added a combined $471 million on April 6 — the largest single-day intake since Feb. 25 and the sixth-largest daily total so far this year. That figure still trails January’s peak regime, when multiple days saw flows above $700 million.
The flows are notable because bitcoin has been stuck below the $70,000 mark, with weak spot-market demand and distribution by large holders limiting upside. In that environment, ETF buying has become the primary source of marginal demand, absorbing available supply and helping to stabilize prices.
Macro signals offer little directional thrust. Markets price a roughly 98% chance the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at its April meeting, per Polymarket, leaving few expectations for near-term rate moves. But the bigger structural shift may be how bitcoin now reacts to global monetary policy.
A Binance Research note highlights a sharp change since 2024 — the year U.S. spot ETFs were approved — in bitcoin’s relationship with its Global Easing Breadth Index (which tracks easing/tightening across 41 central banks). Where bitcoin once tended to follow easing cycles with a lag, that correlation has flipped and turned strongly negative, with the inverse effect nearly three times stronger. “BTC may have evolved from a macro 'lagging receiver' to a 'leading pricer,'” Binance Research wrote.
The explanation is straightforward: retail investors historically reacted to macro after the fact, while ETF-driven institutional flows are more forward-looking, positioning ahead of expected policy moves. As ETFs continue to soak up supply and anchor prices, bitcoin could increasingly trade as a forward-looking asset that prices central bank pivots before broader markets do.
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