Bitcoin looks like it’s stabilizing — not sprinting away.
Data from on‑chain analytics firm CryptoQuant and commentary from analyst MorenoDV_ suggest the market is in a broad “reset” phase: a multi-week deleveraging where leverage is being flushed out and acute stress is easing. That doesn’t mean a definitive bottom has been found; instead, indicators point to a transitionary middle stage of a bear-market bottoming process.
What the charts are saying
- Short-term Sharpe Ratio: MorenoDV_ points to the Short‑Term Sharpe Ratio plunging deep into negative territory (roughly −40). Historically, similar troughs in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023 marked major buying zones that preceded strong re‑pricings in BTC. The current reading sits in the same “red‑circled” area those prior cycle lows occupied.
- 30‑day Buy/Sell Pressure Delta: This metric separates momentary reductions in selling from genuine return of buying demand. Bottoms tend to unfold in stages — an initial wave of forced selling (sharp negative spikes below −0.05), then a cooling period as selling pressure ebbs, and finally a shift into clear buy pressure (blue zone) when real demand returns. Right now the delta is recovering from the heavy‑selling phase but hasn’t yet reached the strong buy territory that historically signals the best entry windows.
Why this matters
Together, the alignment between the depressed Sharpe Ratio and the improving Buy/Sell Delta suggests one of the more attractive risk/reward setups of the cycle — but it’s not an all‑clear. CryptoQuant and the analyst characterize the current regime as a stress cycle: elevated unrealized losses, forced deleveraging, compressed futures basis, and defensive options positioning. Those dynamic forces can keep price action choppy even as headline stress fades.
The caveats
Macro conditions, liquidity dynamics, and lingering weak sentiment could prolong this consolidation or produce fresh volatility. As QCP Market Colour noted in a recent report, recent BTC behavior looks more like a pause than a decisive breakout. For investors who think in cycles, the data argue we’re closer to the start of a new opportunity than the end of the bear market — but patience and risk management remain essential.
Cover image: Perplexity. BTCUSD chart: TradingView.
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