Bitcoin flirted with $73,000 this week after a 9% rally, but veteran traders warn the market may still be in a multi-month bear phase — even as historical patterns point to the possibility of a meaningful rebound.
What analysts are watching
On April 11, chart analyst Ali Martinez (Ali Charts) highlighted a long-running ascending trendline he calls the “Parabolic Guard.” Martinez argues this trendline has been one of Bitcoin’s most consistent technical supports over the past decade: every significant retest of that line has preceded a major expansion in price.
Historic rebounds following Parabolic Guard retests (per Martinez):
- 2017: ~+963%
- 2018: +261%
- 2020: +1,126%
- 2022–2026 period: a cumulative recovery near +660% over four years
Where Bitcoin stands now
Martinez places the Parabolic Guard currently between roughly $56,000 and $60,000 — about 20% below Bitcoin’s recent levels. He also notes that the cycle low formed near $60,000 amid February’s sharp sell-off. In his view, a revisit of that territory would likely be required to mark the end of the prolonged bear market and set up a durable, long-term recovery. He adds that a retest would tend to slow “smart money” accumulation as investors brace for the next leg up.
Market snapshot (at time of writing)
- Price: $71,508 (after a 1.81% daily drop)
- Intraday high this week: ~$73,000
- 24h volume: $26.35 billion (down 27.35%)
- Market mood: CoinCodex flags a heavily bearish sentiment and the Fear & Greed Index remains in extreme fear
- Near-term outlook: CoinCodex analysts expect the current bounce — helped by easing geopolitical tensions — to continue and model a five-day target of about $79,729
Bottom line
Short-term strength has pushed Bitcoin back toward five-figure highs, but many traders are watching the Parabolic Guard as a key arbiter of whether this is a resumption of a bull cycle or just a relief rally inside a longer bear market. Historical precedent suggests a retest of that long-term trendline has often led to outsized rallies — though past patterns are not guarantees of future performance.
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