Here’s a sharper take for a crypto news audience:
Headline: A simple 2-line indicator has pinpointed every major Bitcoin bottom since 2015 — and it still hasn’t fired
Beneath the noise of daily price swings, social-media hot takes, and macro headlines, one very simple technical signal has quietly identified every major Bitcoin market bottom since 2015 — and it hasn’t triggered this cycle.
What the indicator is
- It’s just two moving averages on the weekly chart: the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) and the 100-week SMA.
- Normally the 50-week SMA sits above the 100-week SMA in an uptrending market. When the 50-week dips below the 100-week, that crossover is taken as a bear-market signal.
Why it matters
- That bearish 50/100-week crossover has happened only three times in Bitcoin’s history: April 2015, February 2019, and September 2022.
- Contrary to what you might expect from a “bear signal,” each crossover coincided with the market’s bottoming phase and preceded the next major bull run.
- After April 2015 BTC recovered and later rallied toward the 2017 highs near $20,000.
- The 2019 crossover preceded the renewed uptrend that followed.
- The September 2022 crossover marked the late stage of the 2022 crypto winter; BTC later moved into a new bull market that pushed prices substantially higher.
Where we stand now
- As of April 17, the crossover hasn’t happened. The 50-week SMA remains above the 100-week SMA.
- Bitcoin slid from an October record above $126,000 to roughly $75,000, with a dip near $60,000 in early February. The 50- and 100-week averages have converged, but no bearish crossover has occurred yet.
- That suggests, if history is any guide, the broader bear market may still be intact — and the recent bounce from roughly $65,000 up to about $75,000 could be a temporary recovery rather than the start of a sustained bull run.
A few important caveats
- Past performance isn’t destiny. The 50/100-week crossover has been a reliable contrarian marker before, but it’s not a guarantee.
- Broader market dynamics — e.g., continued strength in U.S. equities, rising institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs, or macro-and regulatory developments — could change the story and support a durable rally even without a bearish crossover.
Bottom line: Keep watching the weekly 50/100 SMA relationship. If the 50-week slips under the 100-week, history suggests we may be at or near a lasting bottom. Until then, many traders will treat recent gains with caution.
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