Bitcoin kicks off the new trading week with a clear map of possible outcomes, according to DeFi researcher and market analyst Sherlockwhale. After studying roughly 450 weekly candles of historical data, he’s identified four specific price levels that could determine whether this week extends gains or marks a pullback. His framework focuses on how Bitcoin closes at two key checkpoints: Monday (the week’s open) and Wednesday (midweek).
Where Bitcoin stands now
- Bitcoin ended last week near $76,000, a 7.2% gain from Monday’s open. Price ran up to $78,333 before reversing, recording a 1.79% drop on Saturday and only a modest recovery on Sunday.
- By the weekly close, BTC had settled around 70% of that week’s range — a sign it spent most of the period in the upper portion of the range but failed to hold near its highs. Sherlockwhale notes that historical instances where BTC breaks the prior week high but closes like this tend to be followed by a lower close the next week about 62% of the time.
The four levels that will matter this week
Sherlockwhale highlights four price thresholds that act as decision points for traders. How Bitcoin behaves around these levels—especially at the Monday and Wednesday closes—helps tilt the probabilities toward a bullish or bearish weekly finish.
- $79,800 (major upside threshold): Roughly 5% above the weekly open. When Monday closes above this level, the week finishes positive about 89.6% of the time historically, and that figure rises to 95.5% in the dataset since 2021.
- $79,116 (near-term resistance confirmation): About 1% above the prior high of $78,333. Closing above this level suggests Bitcoin is holding above the recent resistance.
- Midweek momentum markers: If BTC is more than 3% above Monday’s open by Wednesday, Sherlockwhale’s review of 141 instances shows an 86% chance the week closes positive. If gains exceed 5% by Wednesday (93 historical occurrences), the probability of a positive weekly close climbs to 91.4%.
- $74,480 (downside warning): Approximately 2% below the weekly open. A Monday close below this level signals the prior rally may be failing. If losses are greater than 2% by Wednesday, the week ends down about 80% of the time—and Sherlockwhale notes recent data show no exceptions in comparable scenarios.
- $69,861 (full-range sweep / lower boundary): Just under the prior low of $70,567. A sweep of the weekly range down to this level often precedes a rebound — historically, the remainder of the week turns positive in roughly 81.8% of such cases.
What this means for traders
Sherlockwhale’s approach turns weekly price action into a practical checklist: clear closes above the upside levels point to a strong, continuation-biased week, while closes beneath the downside markers suggest the rally is at risk. Midweek performance—in particular Wednesday’s relationship to Monday’s open—sharpens the odds considerably and can act as an early signal for traders managing risk or adjusting exposure.
Bottom line: watch Monday and Wednesday closes around $79.8k, $79.1k, $74.48k and $69.86k. How BTC behaves at those checkpoints should largely determine whether this week favors a continuation of the recent advance or a pullback.
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