Senator Moreno gives CLARITY Act an end-of-May ultimatum — miss it and crypto reform could be off the table for years
At a Washington event on April 22, Senator Bernie Moreno issued a blunt ultimatum: the CLARITY Act must clear Congress by the end of May — or risk being stalled for years as midterm politics take over.
“We’re going to get it done by the end of May,” Moreno told attendees, according to Disruption Banking. His confidence nudged Polymarket’s prediction on the bill’s 2026 passage from 38% to 46%, but the market remains far from certain.
Why the rush?
- Congress breaks for Memorial Day on May 21, leaving only a few operational weeks on the calendar.
- Even if the Senate Banking Committee successfully marks up the bill, the path still includes several sequential, time-consuming hurdles: a 60-vote threshold on the Senate floor, reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture committee versions, reconciliation with the House text passed in July 2025, and a presidential signature. Each step is a potential choke point.
The opposition and competing data
Moreno dismissed bank lobby pushback over the bill’s stablecoin-yield provisions as “noise,” urging banks to innovate rather than block legislation. His comments target efforts like those from the North Carolina Bankers Association, which has encouraged member banks to lobby Senator Thom Tillis for changes to a stablecoin yield compromise negotiated with the crypto industry.
Banking groups — including the American Bankers Association — have warned that permitting stablecoin rewards could siphon as much as $6.6 trillion from deposits. That alarm, however, is sharply at odds with analysis from the White House Council of Economic Advisers, which estimates the lending impact of a yield ban at only 0.02%. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has added another warning: regulatory delay risks moving digital-asset innovation to friendlier jurisdictions such as Dubai and Singapore.
How likely is passage now?
Analysts say the clock is unforgiving. Galaxy Research’s Alex Thorn noted there are roughly 18 working weeks before Congress’s October midterm recess, so each week of Senate inaction tightens the window — making 2026 passage “structurally implausible” unless the Banking Committee clears the bill this month. Galaxy has put the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at around 50-50 or lower, citing “the sheer number of unresolved questions that must be settled in sequence under severe time pressure.”
Senator Cynthia Lummis has been even more stark: miss this window and the fight may not meaningfully resume until a new Congress in 2030. As of publication, the Senate Banking Committee has not announced a markup date.
Is there a backup plan?
Some industry insiders have floated a lame-duck session after the November elections as a last-ditch option if May’s window closes — but Galaxy Research views that scenario as low-probability.
What’s next
All eyes are on the Senate Banking Committee for any sign of a markup schedule. If the committee acts quickly, the CLARITY Act still has a shot this year. If not, proponents and the wider crypto industry may face a multiyear delay before federal legislation can be revived.
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