Is Bitcoin finally back in bull market territory — or is this just a relief rally? The debate is heating up as BTC steadies after a sharp rebound that took it from cycle lows above $60,000 to a recent range north of $78,000.
Bullish analysts point to improving market structure, a clear price base, and rising buyer control. Ishmael Asad, research analyst at Bitwise, told Sherwood that Bitcoin is “clearly now in a bull market phase,” noting the token’s ability to climb even through major bearish events as evidence of lasting strength.
Macro tailwinds have helped. Wave Digital Assets’ head of international portfolio management Rajiv Sawhney linked part of the move to easing geopolitical tensions — specifically recent developments around an Iran ceasefire extension — which he says have reduced risk premia and allowed assets like Bitcoin to rally. Trading sentiment has brightened across crypto: Spot ETH demand has ticked up and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has flipped back into the “greed” zone after weeks of extreme fear and sideways price action.
On-chain and cycle analysts are taking notice too. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl argues Bitcoin may have already formed a cycle bottom near $60,000, with a durable base around $63,000. Since those levels were tested, BTC has surged more than 20%, clearing $76,000 and briefly trading above $78,000.
Bitwise analysts point to the realized price — the average price at which recently moved coins last changed hands — as another bullish datapoint. For coins moved within the past one to three months, that level sits around $74,000, meaning many recent buyers are now roughly at breakeven after the latest rally.
That said, not everyone is convinced this marks a long-term trend change. Some market participants still warn that conditions could revert and the broader cycle may not be fully resolved. For now, the evidence of a shift is mounting: a stronger technical base, improving sentiment, and macro calm. Traders will be watching key on-chain metrics, realized price levels, and macro headlines closely to see whether buyers can extend gains or if sellers reassert control.
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