Headline: Analyst says a fall to $40,000 would be a “near‑unprecedented” statistical event for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s recent rebound hasn’t convinced everyone the bear market is over. The largest cryptocurrency, trading around $77,551 on Friday after gaining roughly 15% this month, still sits about 40% below its record. That gap has prompted some unnamed forecasters to warn of much deeper losses — even a slide to $40,000 (roughly a 70% drop from the all‑time high).
But bitcoin analyst James Check says that scenario is highly unlikely. In a post on X, Check cautioned that while nothing in markets is impossible, a drop to $40,000 would be “statistically extraordinary.” He bases this view on the Bitcoin Mean Reversion Index, a composite model that averages multiple valuation anchors — including the 200‑week moving average, realized price, a power‑law trend and several volume‑weighted average price (VWAP) measures — and then ranks BTC’s price on a historical percentile basis.
Modeled at $40,000, bitcoin would register as a “0.4 event,” meaning it would fall into the 0.4th percentile of all historical daily closes — a deviation Check describes as “below any meaningful deviation across all major anchors.” To give that some color, he says it would be roughly equivalent, on a relative basis, to bitcoin trading below $2 back in 2011. By comparison, today’s price corresponds to about the 31.5th percentile: weak historically, but within the normal range of corrections.
A quick reminder of the recent run: bitcoin climbed above $126,000 in October before sliding more than 50% to around $60,000 in February and then stabilizing near current levels. Check’s takeaway is cautionary but measured: there’s “no zero probability in markets,” yet a plunge to $40,000 would be a near‑unprecedented statistical outcome rather than a likely next move.
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