A prominent crypto analyst is warning that Bitcoin’s bear market may not be over — and that a painful new low could be coming later this year.
What the analyst is saying
- Market commentator Crypto Bullet posted a bearish forecast on X, arguing BTC is still in a downtrend and is tracing a Double ZigZag (WXY) corrective structure.
- He traces the move from Bitcoin’s October 2025 cycle peak (above $126,000) through the sharp decline to about $60,000 in February 2026, labeling that drop as wave W. Wave X, he says, began from the $60,000 low and could finish once BTC rallies above $80,000.
- Rather than signaling a bull market restart, Crypto Bullet views recent consolidation and price action as part of a larger corrective process. He notes Bitcoin has spent much more time trading between $62,000 and $78,000 than it did in the $84,000–$97,000 range late last year — a sideways dynamic he reads as evidence of ongoing bearish structure.
Key price levels and timing
- Crypto Bullet expects one more push higher — a corrective “X” bounce — targeting an ABC near $82,500 and resistance around $85,000. If that completes, he projects wave Y as the final, deeper decline.
- His bottom target for that final leg is roughly $40,000, which would be about a 50% drop from an $80,000 peak. He dates the potential bottom between September and October 2026 and estimates roughly five months remain before the bear market concludes — a timeline he says is consistent with past cycles.
Market context and reaction
- The call runs counter to more optimistic takes that see recent gains as the start of a new bull phase. Crypto Bullet’s scenario would punish bulls who interpret a move back toward $80k as confirmation of a sustained uptrend.
- Crypto analyst Tony Severino is cited as sharing a similar view, lending another voice to the bearish camp.
Takeaway
Crypto Bullet’s thesis hinges on classic wave-counting logic: a corrective double zigzag with a final leg that could push prices materially lower before cycle completion. As always, wave analyses are one framework among many — they provide a roadmap for scenarios, not guaranteed outcomes — and Bitcoin’s path will depend on macro factors, on-chain flows and market sentiment as the year unfolds.
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