Glassnode says Bitcoin’s latest bounce stalled at a historically meaningful cost-basis zone, and on-chain signals suggest that the market’s next meaningful support could be materially lower.
In its latest weekly report, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlighted a retest of two key metrics that often mark turning points: the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis and the True Market Mean. The STH Cost Basis captures the average buy price of holders who acquired BTC within the past 155 days — a cohort that, because of their shorter holding periods, typically behaves as the most price-sensitive “weak hands.” The True Market Mean estimates the break-even level for the active market as a whole.
Right now those two levels sit very close together — roughly $79,000 for the STH Cost Basis and about $78,000 for the True Market Mean — creating a narrow band that has acted like resistance during this pullback. Glassnode notes this is a classic bear-market pattern: as price approaches the break-even of the most vulnerable cohort, selling pressure from those who bought recently tends to overwhelm new demand and sap upside momentum.
After BTC was turned back at that zone, the on-chain charts point to the next significant level: the -1 standard deviation (SD) of the STH Realized Price, which sits near $68,000. Historically, that -1 SD has often served as a support level after rejections at the STH Cost Basis. Glassnode’s charts also show short-term holders increasing realized profit-taking during the recent rise, which helps explain the strength of the rejection.
Bitcoin traded down to about $76,400 following the pullback. The market now faces a crossroads: another attempt to reclaim the STH/True Market Mean band, or a retreat toward the -1 SD support around $68,000. Traders and analysts will be watching those on-chain levels closely for cues on where momentum might re-emerge.
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