XRP is perched at a delicate crossroads after a wave of rapid deleveraging following the Federal Reserve’s April 29 decision, and the market’s derivative and spot flows make the path forward anything but obvious. A CryptoQuant report tracing the hours and days after the Fed move shows a swift reset of leverage and confirming signs that buying demand has cooled — a combination that leaves XRP’s recovery “clean” but unconfirmed.
What happened
- The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% and confirmed Jerome Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his chairmanship. That combination kept macro attention elevated and triggered quick reactions across crypto markets.
- Binance open interest for XRP plunged to about $208 million on April 29, returning leverage to levels last seen in February. In other words, much of the leverage built between February and late April was unwound in a compressed timeframe.
- That reset wasn’t just technical: spot buying on centralized exchanges weakened. CryptoQuant’s CEX Estimated Spot CVD fell to roughly $920 million since April 17, signaling a drop in real underlying demand during the deleveraging.
- Perpetual markets showed persistent sell-side pressure. Binance Perpetual CVD slid from about -$271 million to -$383 million (a further $112 million of net selling), indicating sellers stayed active even as open interest contracted.
- Liquidations were concentrated on long positions from April 17 through month-end, especially around the Fed/Powell headlines on April 29. Forced exits added fresh selling into a market already seeing lower spot demand.
Why this matters
The market has been “cleaned” of excess leverage and fragile positions — that reduces immediate systemic risk. But cleaning doesn’t equal a pivot to bullish; for a meaningful rebound, spot demand needs to stabilize and reverse. Until spot CVD improves, the current reset only tells us the build-up is gone, not what comes next.
Price action and technical context
- XRP is trading around $1.37 and has been confined to a tight range since the sharp February selloff. After a capitulation wick toward $1.15, price has formed a series of shallow higher lows — more consistent with passive accumulation than an aggressive trend reversal.
- The $1.35 area is the key pivot point, repeatedly acting as support and equilibrium. Recent rejection near $1.45 highlights notable overhead supply.
- Technicals remain cautious: XRP sits below the major moving averages. The 50-day is immediate resistance, with the 100- and 200-day averages trending downward above price, keeping the medium-term structure biased bearish.
- Volume has fallen significantly compared with the February breakdown. Lower participation often precedes expansion, but it doesn’t signal direction by itself.
Levels to watch
- Bull case: a decisive break above $1.45 would change the structure and open the way to $1.60.
- Bear case: failure to hold $1.33–$1.35 would likely invalidate the higher-low pattern and could push price back toward $1.25, where prior demand appeared.
Bottom line
The derivatives purge after the Fed decision has left XRP’s market structure cleaner but not yet bullish. Traders should watch spot CVD and price behavior around $1.35–$1.45 for the next directional clue. Until spot flows recover, the market remains in a wait-and-see phase.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
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