Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse doubled down at XRP Las Vegas on April 30, saying he expects the CLARITY Act to clear Congress and reach President Trump’s desk by the end of May — his third public deadline after predicting an April passage with “80%” odds on Fox Business in February and later shifting to May at industry events.
Why he’s optimistic
- Garlinghouse told the conference he expects the bill to clear the Senate Banking Committee, pass the Senate floor, and reach the White House before the Memorial Day recess. “When people are at their peak of frustration, that’s when they finally compromise, and it gets done. I think we’re there,” he said, according to Disruption Banking.
- Support for the bill has reportedly broadened as deadlines have slipped: more than 120 firms — including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and Andreessen Horowitz — have joined forces to press for action. Those companies sent a joint letter on April 23 demanding an immediate markup.
What’s been holding it up
- The main substantive sticking point has been a dispute over stablecoin yield: whether third-party platforms should be able to offer rewards on stablecoin balances. Garlinghouse says that disagreement is “largely resolved” after the White House Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) concluded that a total ban on stablecoin yields would cost consumers about $800 million per year.
- The remaining obstacle is largely a calendar problem. The Senate returns on May 11 and then heads into Memorial Day recess on May 21, and Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has not yet scheduled a markup.
Why the timeline matters
- Supporters warn the current window is narrow. Senator Cynthia Lummis has called this “our last chance to pass the CLARITY Act until at least 2030,” with Senator Bernie Moreno making similar comments — a reflection of how rare the present alignment of the House, Senate, and White House on crypto policy may be before midterm shifts.
Market and analyst reaction
- Garlinghouse’s end-of-May prediction is a notable outlier versus market and research estimates. Polymarket puts the odds of passage in 2026 at roughly 46%, Galaxy Research frames it as a 50/50 proposition, and TD Cowen estimates about a one-in-three chance.
Bottom line
Garlinghouse’s renewed deadline underscores growing industry pressure and a narrowed political window, but procedural timing in the Senate — not just policy consensus — will likely determine whether the CLARITY Act meets the tight Memorial Day target.
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