Headline: Big options expiry looms as Bitcoin trades below short-term buyers’ cost basis — bears have the edge
Bitcoin slid beneath a key price threshold held by short-term holders, signaling that many recent buyers are underwater as one of the month’s largest options expiries hits the market.
On-chain analytics from Glassnode show BTC trading below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $78,900 and under the True Market Mean of $78,000. Technical support sits lower, around $65,000–$70,000 — a backdrop that nudges sentiment toward caution as expiry day arrives.
What’s expiring?
- About 23,000 BTC options contracts — roughly $1.74 billion notionally — are set to expire on Deribit today (08:00 UTC). Deribit’s broader snapshot shows ~$2.14 billion in crypto options across BTC and ETH expiring.
- The BTC put-call ratio for today’s expiries is 1.10, indicating more exposure to downside bets.
- Max pain for BTC is $76,000 — the strike level where the most options would expire worthless. Bitcoin was trading near $77,200 as markets opened, close to that level. Deribit data suggests a 95% probability that options will settle above $76,000, with heavy open interest clustered at the $75,500 and $77,000 strikes.
Short-term flow and volume
- Over the past 24 hours the broader BTC put-call ratio for trading activity rose to 0.73 while overall volume declined. Part of the slowdown followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, which weighed on risk-taking.
Ethereum also under pressure
- Ethereum faces a large expiry as well: more than 175,000 ETH options (about $400 million) are expiring on Deribit today. The put-call ratio for those contracts is 0.95, but 24-hour flow has tilted bearish — put volume recently surged past calls, lifting the short-term put-call ratio to 1.17.
- ETH’s max pain sits at $2,325, and the token was trading around $2,284 — already below that level — with a 24-hour range of $2,232–$2,293. Spot volume for ETH dropped roughly 45% in the prior day.
Macro and geopolitical crosswinds
Markets weren’t moving on options dynamics alone. US PCE inflation printed 3.5% — a three-year high — prompting profit-taking across crypto. Energy prices rose, with oil near $106/barrel amid reports of US naval actions in the Strait of Hormuz. Media accounts also suggested President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian offer to de-escalate the standoff, adding to risk-off sentiment.
What to watch
Traders will be watching whether Bitcoin can hold above the $76,000 max pain level at settlement. If BTC breaks and stays below that strike, it could amplify downside pressure into the next session; if it holds, much of the options-related strain may dissipate.
Sources: Glassnode, Deribit, trading data from exchanges and TradingView. Featured image: Gemini; chart: TradingView.
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