XRP slipped about 5% on June 18 as a Fed-driven risk-off move rippled through crypto markets, but traders are still eyeing bullish chart clues and a major liquidity cluster around $1.30 that could spark a sharp reversal.
What happened
- XRP failed to clear the roughly $1.25 resistance area and then dropped to an intraday low of $1.16 after heavy spot selling intensified below the recently reclaimed $1.20 level. That decline tripped stop-losses and leveraged liquidations.
- The pullback came alongside a broader market retreat after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% while signaling tightening risks in 2026, reinforcing risk-off flows.
Technical picture
- Shorter-term (4-hour): XRP has pulled back into a descending channel formed after an earlier rally toward $1.29. The price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1.165 while still sitting above an ascending trendline that’s supported the market since early June.
- Momentum: RSI is around 43 and the MACD histogram sits below zero following a bearish crossover — weakness, but not deeply oversold.
- Key levels: a decisive break below $1.16 would likely expose the June swing low near $1.12. On the upside, reclaiming $1.20 would bring resistance targets at $1.23, $1.26 and $1.29 back into play.
- Daily view: XRP remains under the Supertrend resistance near $1.26, but the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up ~78% and Aroon Down ~14%, implying the longer-term trend hasn’t completely flipped to the bears.
Bullish signals traders are watching
- Analyst Gerla flagged a bullish divergence on the 3-day chart: momentum is turning higher even as price prints lower lows inside a falling wedge — a setup that can precede breakouts if buying resurges.
- Trader Nebraskangooner sees a potential accumulation structure on the daily chart and says confirmation would require a break above $1.34 — a level to watch for a larger trend reversal.
Derivatives and liquidity dynamics
- Liquidation heatmaps from CoinGlass show a heavy concentration of leveraged positions around $1.30, with additional clusters toward $1.34. Those zones can act like magnets for price and could fuel a short squeeze if buyers push XRP higher.
Fundamentals: Ripple continues expansion
- Ripple bought an equity stake in African payments firm Flutterwave in a deal valuing the company at $3.3 billion. The transaction doesn’t create a commercial partnership but gives Ripple exposure to a major African payments network.
- Ripple also said it expects to hit a $1 billion revenue run rate by the end of 2026, excluding XRP on its balance sheet — a bullish operational target that adds a fundamental angle beyond token price action.
Risks and what to watch
- Macro headwinds remain the biggest risk: elevated oil, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a “higher-for-longer” Fed stance could sap risk appetite and press XRP lower along with other crypto assets.
- For bulls, defending the $1.16–$1.18 demand zone is critical. Losing that area would weaken the current recovery thesis and increase the odds of a drop toward $1.12. Conversely, holding that support and reclaiming $1.20 could draw price up toward the large liquidation clusters near $1.30 and revive momentum toward the top of XRP’s recent range.
Bottom line
XRP’s short-term dip looks like a classic Fed-induced pullback, but technical divergences, concentrated derivative liquidity and ongoing Ripple corporate developments give traders reasons to watch for a potential rebound. Confirmation would require decisive moves above key resistance levels (notably $1.20 and ultimately $1.34) while a breakdown below $1.16 would raise the prospect of deeper weakness.
Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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