XRP slips to trendline support as bullish divergence keeps recovery hopes alive
XRP slid nearly 5% on June 18, tumbling to an intraday low of $1.16 after failing to clear the $1.25 resistance and then getting hit by heavy spot selling. The drop intensified below the recently reclaimed $1.20 area, triggering stop-losses and leveraged liquidations, and came as risk appetite faded across crypto following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75% while warning of potential further tightening in 2026.
Price action and immediate technicals
- After rallying toward $1.29 earlier in June, XRP has pulled back into a descending channel. Price is testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $1.165 while still sitting above an ascending trendline that has supported the market since early June. Holding that trendline is proving critical for bulls.
- Momentum has cooled but not capitulated: the 4-hour RSI sits around 43 and the MACD histogram remains below zero following a bearish crossover.
- On the daily chart, XRP remains below the Supertrend resistance near $1.26, yet the Aroon indicator shows Aroon Up at ~78% and Aroon Down near 14%, indicating the longer-term trend hasn’t fully swung to the bears.
Key levels to watch
- Support: $1.16–$1.18 is the immediate demand zone; a decisive break below $1.16 would open the June swing low near $1.12.
- Resistance and targets: reclaiming $1.20 would put $1.23, $1.26 and the $1.29 area back in play. A convincing flip above $1.34 would suggest a more meaningful trend reversal.
Bullish signals amid the pullback
Several traders and chartists are watching for reversal clues. Analyst Gerla flagged a bullish divergence on the three-day chart, noting momentum is turning higher even as price makes lower lows inside a falling wedge — a setup that can precede breakouts when selling pressure eases. Another analyst, Nebraskangooner, suggested a possible accumulation structure on the daily timeframe, saying confirmation would require a break above $1.34.
Derivatives and liquidity dynamics
Liquidation heatmaps from CoinGlass show one of the largest leverage clusters near $1.30, with further pockets up toward $1.34. Those concentrations of short positions could act as “magnets” for price if buyers regain control and force a short squeeze, potentially accelerating any recovery.
Fundamentals: Ripple’s growth story keeps interest high
Outside the charts, Ripple continues to expand its payments footprint. This week the company bought an equity stake in African fintech Flutterwave, a deal valuing the payments firm at about $3.3 billion. While the transaction doesn’t include a commercial tie-up, it gives Ripple exposure to one of Africa’s largest payment networks as Flutterwave scales regionally.
Ripple also boosted expectations for its operating business, projecting it could reach a $1 billion revenue run rate by the end of 2026 (excluding XRP on its balance sheet). That outlook offers a fundamental growth metric that some investors see as supportive of XRP’s narrative.
Macro and downside risks
Macro forces remain the primary headwinds. Elevated oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and the Fed’s “higher-for-longer” stance are all weighing on risk-on assets. Any further deterioration in global sentiment could push XRP lower alongside the broader crypto market.
Bottom line
XRP is testing a critical trendline and the $1.16 demand zone — holding here would keep a recovery scenario alive, with $1.20 and the large liquidation clusters near $1.30-$1.34 as logical upside targets. A clear break below $1.16 would raise the odds of a deeper pullback toward $1.12.
Disclosure: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
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