Wealthsimple has won approval to bring roughly 4,000 prediction-market contracts to Canadian retail investors through a new partnership with Kalshi, and plans to roll out a standalone platform, Wealthsimple Predict, this summer.
What’s launching
- Wealthsimple Predict will list thousands of event-based contracts sourced from Kalshi across categories including financial markets, economic data and climate-related events, giving Canadians a first mainstream outlet to trade outcomes rather than assets.
- The authorization, granted by the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) in March, makes Wealthsimple the second investment dealer permitted to offer prediction-market contracts in Canada. CIRO said the products will be treated as derivatives and must carry settlement periods of at least 30 days.
Kalshi’s crypto push and trading boom
- The move comes as Kalshi aggressively expands beyond conventional event markets into crypto-linked derivatives. The firm announced its perpetual futures business at the end of May and this week said perpetual futures products are now live.
- Kalshi reported that its new perpetual futures platform generated more than $5.5 billion in trading volume within two weeks of launch. The company currently lists 11 crypto-linked perpetual futures contracts and says it is in ongoing discussions with regulators about additional products.
Regulatory and political headwinds
- Prediction markets have drawn mixed responses from regulators and lawmakers worldwide. In the U.S., a coalition that includes the Indian Gaming Association, the American Gaming Association and several labor groups has urged Congress to amend the CLARITY Act to explicitly ban sports and casino-style event contracts on prediction-market platforms, arguing such activity should remain under state and tribal gambling oversight.
- The debate has spilled into litigation: CME Group filed suit against the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission this week, challenging the regulator’s approvals of cryptocurrency perpetual futures from Kalshi and similar products launched by Coinbase. The suit followed the CFTC’s May approvals — including a green light for Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual futures and a no-action letter that allowed Coinbase to roll out comparable products.
Global divergence in policy
- Responses from other jurisdictions vary widely. Spanish regulators ordered internet providers in May to block access to Kalshi and Polymarket while assessing potential gambling-law violations. Indonesia has banned Polymarket, and Japanese and South Korean authorities have also taken action against prediction-market activity.
- At least 11 U.S. states have recently challenged prediction markets. Digital Chamber CEO Cody Carbone told attendees at Bitso’s Stablecoin Conference on June 16 that the growing clash between state gambling regulators and the CFTC could ultimately land before the U.S. Supreme Court.
Why it matters
Wealthsimple’s launch of Predict marks a significant step in bringing event-based trading to mainstream Canadian investors under a regulated derivatives framework. At the same time, Kalshi’s rapid move into crypto perpetuals and the ensuing regulatory, political and legal pushback underscore that prediction markets are becoming a hotbed of innovation — and controversy — at the intersection of finance, gambling law and crypto regulation.
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