Ethereum clawed back from Thursday’s losses on Friday, trading up just under 1% as buyers stepped in and paused the short-term downtrend. At the time of writing ETH sits around $2,060 — its first monthly gain in six months — but onchain indicators and ETF flows present a mixed outlook for further upside.
Onchain flows: big wallets flip, smaller cohorts keep selling
- Large trader cohort (10K–100K ETH): these wallets were heavy sellers between March 24–30, offloading about 340K ETH, but they reversed course this week and accumulated roughly 270K ETH across the last two days.
- Mid- and smaller-sized holders (100–1K ETH and 1K–10K ETH): both cohorts continued to trim positions, together reducing holdings by around 200K ETH over the past week.
- US spot ETH ETFs: inflows have been scarce — only two days of net inflows in the past two weeks — signaling a persistent bearish bias among institutional retail flows.
Technical picture: bulls defending $2k, but key hurdles remain
- Short-term momentum is mildly bullish: ETH is trading near $2,062, the 4-hour structure looks constructive, the RSI sits around 53 (just above neutral) and the MACD has stabilized near the midline.
- Moving averages are acting as resistance: ETH is still below the 20- and 50-day EMAs, which are constraining gains near ~$2,080 and ~$2,160 respectively.
- Immediate resistance sits at $2,108; a daily close above that level would likely relieve short-term pressure and put the 100-day EMA and the $2,389 region back in play. Further upside targets include $2,389 and $2,746.
- On the downside, a loss of momentum could push ETH back to support levels at $1,911, then $1,741 and $1,524. Staying below $2,108 raises the risk of drifting toward the $1,700 area.
Bottom line
Ethereum’s near-term outlook is a tug-of-war: large holders have returned to buying, but smaller cohorts continue to trim and ETF flows remain tepid. Technicals favor a cautious bullish bias, but ETH needs a convincing daily close above ~$2,108 to restore clearer upside potential; otherwise downside risks toward the $1,700s persist.
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