Bitcoin’s price ripped higher over the past week — briefly topping $73,000 — as investor risk appetite improved amid a temporary ceasefire in the US–Iran conflict. The rally has sparked renewed focus on on-chain valuation models that help map potential support and resistance levels, according to analytics firm Glassnode.
Glassnode’s April 10 update highlights several key cohort-based price metrics that reflect where different groups of holders are positioned:
- Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis: $81,300 — the average purchase price of coins acquired in the last ~155 days. Because short-term holders are most reactive, trading below this level typically leaves that cohort underwater and prone to selling on rallies, which can create a meaningful resistance band.
- Active Investors Mean: $85,000 — the average cost for economically active market participants, often used as a proxy for broader market confidence. With the spot price well below this mark, most active capital remains at a paper loss, reinforcing cautious behavior.
- True Market Mean: $78,000 — an adjusted “fair value” that accounts for lost and inactive supply. Trading below this level suggests Bitcoin is still discounted relative to its refined economic baseline.
- Realized Price: $54,200 — the average acquisition cost of all circulating BTC, commonly viewed as a macro-level support and a rough capitulation threshold.
At the time of Glassnode’s snapshot, spot had climbed to about $71,800; at press time Bitcoin was trading near $72,700 — roughly a 10% gain over the past week. Glassnode flagged the area around $78,000 as the next significant resistance: clearing it could point to a more convincing bullish recovery, while failure to close that gap would leave much of the market technically underwater and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
Bottom line: the short-term price pop reflects improving risk sentiment, but cohort-level cost bases show many investors remain below water. The realized price continues to provide long-term structural support, but breaking key metrics like the True Market Mean and Active Investors Mean will be important signals for whether this rally sustains.
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