Bitcoin’s March bounce may have ended a painful slide, but a major supply wall stands in the way of a true recovery.
What happened in March
- Bitcoin closed March up about 2%, snapping five consecutive months of losses — the longest stretch of red monthly candles since 2018. CoinGlass data confirms the streak is over.
- The final March close put BTC near $68,250 as April began, leaving traders wondering whether positive momentum will hold.
The big hurdle: ~650,000 BTC at $70k–$72k
- Glassnode shows roughly 650,000 BTC were bought in the $70,000–$72,000 range. That cluster represents a large group of holders who are still underwater and likely to sell once they reach breakeven.
- That zone also lines up with the 50-day simple and exponential moving averages — so it’s not just a round number, it’s a technical bottleneck. Clearing it could open the way to $76,000 and then the $80,000 area; some traders (e.g., Sheldon Diedericks) point to monthly-chart resistance near $83,000, a level that served as support in April 2025 and sits around the 200-day EMA.
If momentum stalls
- Key downside supports are close. The 200-week EMA is around $68,300 — just below current trading — followed by the 200-week SMA at roughly $59,400. Bitcoin’s realized price sits near $54,000, a common reference for a bear-market floor.
- In short: a successful break above $70k–$72k would be bullish; failure to do so could quickly bring those lower support bands into play.
Historical context and market sentiment
- Traders are drawing parallels to 2018–2019, when six straight losing months preceded a sharp recovery that produced more than 300% gains in the following five months. Analysts warn that this is only a single historical example, but the comparison is fueling optimism.
- Voices on X (Twitter) reflected the mood: Ash Crypto called March’s green monthly candle “a massive dose of hopium,” while Satoshi Flipper highlighted the 2018–2019 pattern of multi-month reversals.
April isn’t guaranteed to follow March
- Looking back to 2013, Bitcoin closed April higher in 8 out of 13 years with average returns near 12%. However, April has frequently moved opposite March — 9 of those 13 years — and more recently, BTC fell in April after a green March in three of the four years from 2021–2024.
Bottom line
Bitcoin’s first green monthly candle after five reds is encouraging, but the 650,000-BTC concentration in the $70k–$72k band is the immediate test. A decisive break above that zone could rekindle a broader rally; failure to do so would put major weekly and realized-price supports back in the spotlight. Traders will be watching price action around those levels — and whether April can extend the tentative recovery.
Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news
