Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse doubled down at XRP Las Vegas on April 30, saying the long-stalled CLARITY Act will clear Congress and reach the president’s desk by the end of May — his third public deadline for the bill after first putting an 80% chance on April passage in February and then shifting his target to May at two industry events.
Garlinghouse told attendees he expects the bill to survive a Senate Banking Committee markup, pass the Senate floor and arrive at President Trump’s desk ahead of the Memorial Day recess on May 21. “When people are at their peak of frustration, that’s when they finally compromise, and it gets done. I think we’re there,” he said.
Why the rush? Supporters warn there’s a narrow window to pass the CLARITY Act now. Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno have both framed this short window as the “last chance” to pass federal crypto legislation until at least 2030, pointing to the rare alignment between the House, Senate and White House on crypto policy that may not survive upcoming midterms.
Garlinghouse’s shifting timelines reflect the bill’s rocky path rather than retreat: as deadlines slipped, the coalition backing the bill has actually grown. More than 120 firms — including Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken and Andreessen Horowitz — signed a joint letter on April 23 demanding an immediate markup. That broader industry push has increased political momentum even as procedural hurdles remain.
A core sticking point since January has been a dispute over stablecoin yield: whether third-party platforms should be able to offer rewards on stablecoin balances. Garlinghouse said that dispute is largely resolved after a White House Council of Economic Advisers report concluded a blanket ban on such yields would cost consumers about $800 million annually — a finding that undercuts arguments for a strict prohibition.
What’s left is a scheduling problem. The Senate returns on May 11 and will break for Memorial Day on May 21, but Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott has not yet set a markup date, leaving little calendar room to move the bill through committee, to the floor and to the president before recess.
Market odds remain skeptical. Polymarket prices 2026 passage at roughly 46%, Galaxy Research slots passage at around 50/50, and TD Cowen pegs it closer to one-in-three — making Garlinghouse’s end-of-May prediction a notable outlier against broader market expectations.
Bottom line: industry leaders are rallying, a major policy dispute appears narrowed, and the political window is tight. Whether that combination can overcome Senate scheduling realities will determine if Garlinghouse’s bold timeline proves prescient or premature.
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