Crypto analysts are turning cautious as Bitcoin continues to wobble, with warnings that the recent rebound may yet give way to deeper losses before a true bottom forms.
Tony, the analyst who correctly flagged Bitcoin’s decline from the local peak near $82,000, doubled down on bearish expectations in a series of posts on X. He says the drop from $82,000 wasn’t accidental: Bitcoin ran into the 200-day moving average—a level that has historically acted as stiff resistance in past bear markets—while hovering around the 0.5 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zones. Based on his technical read, Tony believes a new cycle low is highly probable over the coming months, with two scenarios on the table: a continued leg lower into summer, or a deceptive “bull trap” where BTC spikes above $85,000 to lure retail buyers before dumping to fresh lows.
Tony’s chart-based targets are stark: a potential slide to roughly $50,000 by July, and the possibility of prices falling under $40,000 before the cycle finally bottoms. He also noted recent bearish technicals — Bitcoin has broken an ascending channel and is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud, both typically bearish signals. His near-term path calls for a short bounce from around $67,000 up into the $74,000 area, followed by a move to retest and breach $60,000. Tony stressed that while short-term rallies are possible, the main trend remains down and a sustained bull market is not imminent.
Echoing the cautious tone, analyst Colin told followers on X that $65,000–$66,000 looks like a plausible support zone for a short-term rebound that could last weeks or even a couple of months. Still, he warned that a retest of $60,000 remains likely, and that this February low probably isn’t the ultimate bottom. Colin pointed out historical context: prior bear cycles have seen BTC dives of more than 70% from peak, and the current cycle has not yet produced that scale of decline from the October high near $126,000.
Market snapshot: at the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading around $66,300, down more than 6% over the past 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap.
Bottom line: both analysts expect interim bounces, but their technical frameworks favor further downside risk this year. Traders should brace for volatility and consider the possibility of deeper retracements before a sustainable recovery.
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