Toncoin posts a modest rally, but on-chain data raises red flags
Toncoin climbed 2% in the last 24 hours and has jumped about 12.5% over the past week — gains that look tied to Telegram’s rollout of a self‑custodial wallet in the US and fresh bullish commentary from Wall Street veteran Anthony Scaramucci. Speaking to Altcoin Daily, the SkyBridge Capital founder named TON one of his top three picks for 2026, saying Telegram’s network growth should drive demand; he also revealed he bought TON when it was around $7.50. At the time of writing TON changed hands near $1.72. (Source: TON/USDT on TradingView)
Technical triggers brought traders back in early January. A November 1‑day imbalance that acted as a supply zone through December was breached at the start of the year, drawing renewed attention and speculative flows. (Source: Santiment)
But the on‑chain picture is far less encouraging. Open interest has ticked up since October, yet it remains well below its August peak. Mean coin age hasn’t trended higher since October, signalling a lack of broad accumulation and pointing instead to repeated sell‑offs driven by profit‑taking or panic. MVRV has improved but remains negative, implying that holders who bought in the past three months are still, on average, nursing small losses.
User activity has also cooled off. Token Terminal data shows weekly active users have flattened over the last year after a late‑2024 surge, and supply distribution indicates accumulation is concentrated among smaller holders while larger cohorts are shrinking — the number of wallets holding 1,000+ TON has fallen. (Sources: Santiment, Token Terminal)
Macro sentiment adds another hurdle. The altcoin sector underperformed for much of 2025, with Bitcoin dominance reinforced by ETF flows and corporate crypto treasuries, making it harder for altcoins to capture the mainstream narrative outside brief windows such as June–September.
Bottom line: despite recent price strength and high‑profile endorsement, Toncoin’s price action and on‑chain metrics do not yet make a compelling long‑term case for buyers. A short‑term bounce from the ~$1.70 support could push prices toward retracement targets around $1.89 and $2.01, but structural signals suggest caution.
Disclaimer: This article is informational and not investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies carries high risk; do your own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto
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