XRP has slipped below $1.40 as renewed selling pressure ends weeks of sideways action — but the story under the surface is even more significant. Data from Binance derivatives tracked by a CryptoQuant analyst points to a sweeping deleveraging that the spot chart alone doesn’t show.
The headline metric: Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio for XRP has plunged from 0.59 in mid‑July 2025 to just 0.13 today — a 78% contraction in eight months. In plain terms, the exchange’s leveraged exposure to XRP has been almost entirely unwound. Open interest on Binance backs up that picture: it’s now around $375 million, a small fraction of the levels seen during the token’s recent run-ups.
That combination — sharply lower leverage plus collapsing open interest — suggests a structural reset of the derivatives market. The crowded, highly leveraged trades that once amplified every move are largely gone. With fewer large, margin-driven positions in the system, the market is less prone to sudden liquidation cascades and the reflexive volatility those cascades create.
The analyst’s takeaway is careful: this reset doesn’t mean XRP is set to rally. Instead, it means the next meaningful move will be driven more by fundamental conviction — genuine buying or selling — rather than mechanical leverage. In other words, when a catalyst arrives the price reaction should reflect real demand or supply, not a cascade of forced liquidations.
On the spot side, XRP is trading at $1.3753, down 2.77% on the day. The session opened at $1.4145, touched $1.4165 early, and then sold off steadily — a clear rejection of the morning highs. Technically, the daily chart remains bleak: XRP peaked near $3.30 in late September 2025 and has trended lower for six months without recording a higher high. Every attempted recovery — the December consolidation near $1.90, the January rally to $2.40, and the post‑capitulation bounce from $1.15 — was sold into and failed to reclaim prior strength.
Moving averages reinforce the downtrend. The 50‑day MA has crossed below the 100‑day MA (a death cross on the intermediate timeframe), both sloping down sharply. The 200‑day MA sits around $2.10 and remains a distant, significant overhead barrier. Today’s close threatens to break the $1.40 range support that has held since February; a daily close beneath it would put the February capitulation low of $1.15 back in focus as the next structural reference point.
Bottom line: derivatives-driven volatility has been stripped from XRP’s market structure, leaving a cleaner — but not necessarily bullish — setup. With leverage largely removed, future moves should more closely track real market conviction, meaning the next big swing could come fast and be decisive in either direction.
Sources: CryptoQuant (Binance derivatives), TradingView. Featured image from ChatGPT.
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