Netflix jolted markets after handing down Q2 guidance that missed Wall Street expectations, sending the stock tumbling about 10%.
Key misses
- Q2 revenue guidance: $12.57 billion vs. $12.64 billion expected.
- Q2 EPS guidance: $0.78 vs. $0.84 expected.
- Operating income outlook: $4.11 billion vs. $4.34 billion expected.
Share buybacks and investor nerves
Netflix repurchased just $1.3 billion of stock in Q1 — well below the roughly $2.3 billion quarterly average seen in 2025 — stoking investor concern and contributing to the selloff. Management emphasized there’s no change to the company’s capital-allocation plan and about $6.8 billion remains available under the current repurchase authorization.
What management said
Co-CEO Greg Peters tried to calm markets on the earnings call: “Of course, it’s early in the year. There’s still plenty of time to go, plenty of work left to go do.” He added that the company has “seen really good progress so far in this first quarter that builds on the solid momentum and results from 2025.” Executives also flagged continued focus on new growth areas like podcasts, vertical video and live events.
Q1 2026 results
- Revenue: $12.25 billion (Bloomberg consensus $12.17 billion; Q1 2025: $10.54 billion).
- Adjusted EPS: $1.23 (vs. $0.76 estimate).
Analyst take and price targets
Despite the knee-jerk drop, Wall Street remains generally bullish. The median analyst target is $115 (about a 19% upside from the cited $96 price). Notable calls:
- Oppenheimer: Outperform
- Guggenheim: Buy, reiterated, $120 target
- Bernstein: $139 target (higher outlier)
- Freedom Broker: upgraded to Buy, $104 target
Why crypto traders should care
Large tech moves often recalibrate risk appetite across markets. A pronounced equity selloff can trigger risk-off flows that ripple into crypto, so traders watching correlations may want to monitor how this equity volatility impacts volume and sentiment in crypto markets.
Bottom line: Netflix posted solid Q1 results but conservative Q2 guidance and slower buybacks unsettled investors — yet analysts still expect meaningful upside over the coming year.
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